Title : E-cigarette volume sales by flavour category in South Africa during 2022-2025: Evidence of excise tax impact from Nielsen sales channels
Abstract:
Background: Youths are increasingly attracted to e-cigarettes due to flavours and ease of access. This study therefore assessed trends in total volume sales of e-cigarette liquids (e-liquids) and flavour categories sold through the Nielsen sales channels during 2022-2025 and examined the impacts of the introduction of excise tax of R2.90/ml of e-liquid in June 2023.
Method: This study used monthly aggregated volume sales of e-liquids, collected by the NielsenIQ Market Scan Track (NMST) from July 2022 to June 2025 in South Africa. Joinpoint regression and interrupted time series analysis were employed to assess trends in monthly percentage change in overall volume and volume by major flavour categories.
Results and Discussion: The total volume sales of e-liquids increased by 1.19% (95% CI: 1.22, 2.59) on average per month during the study period. Volume sales of fruit and fruit-ice flavoured e-liquids increased on average by 1.71% and 3.5% per month, respectively. Total volume sales of e-cigarettes with unknown and 20-40 mg/ml e-liquids significantly increased 1.43% (95% CI: 0.51-2.36) and 5.43% (95% CI: 4.36, 6.50) per month, respectively.
Total e-liquid sales volume increased significantly by 0.64% (95% CI: 0.27, 1.02) after the implementation of the tax in June 2023, but there were no significant immediate effects. The excise tax had a positive and significant immediate impact on volume sales of refillable pods/cartridge e-cigarettes (27.84%, 95% CI: 18.86, 37.49) and significantly declined by 1.65% (95% CI: -1.91, -1.38) after the introduction of the excise tax. By contrast, volume sales of disposable and refill e-liquids increased by 1.93% and 2.27%, respectively, after the implementation of the excise tax.
Conclusion: The fruits/sweets flavor category of e-cigarette liquids experienced the largest increase in sales volume over the study period, and the implementation of an excise tax on June 1, 2023, had not decreased sales volume in the recent period.
Keywords: E-Cigarette, Volume Sales, Flavour, and Joinpoint Analysis
