Title : Insights into climate change dynamics: A tourism climate index-based evaluation of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan
Abstract:
Summary of the presentation covering the tourism climate index-based analysis of climate change impacts on tourism in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan.
Background: Tourism is a vital economic sector in Pakistan, yet the country is highly vulnerable to climate change. Gilgit-Baltistan, a major tourist destination in the Himalayan region, faces changing climatic conditions that affect tourist comfort and destination viability. However, limited research has quantitatively assessed climate change impacts on tourism in this region.
Objective: This study applies the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) to evaluate the current and future suitability of climatic conditions for tourism in six key locations of Gilgit-Baltistan (Astore, Bunji, Chillas, Gilgit, Gupis, and Skardu). It also projects TCI changes under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585) using three climate models.
Methods: TCI was calculated based on five sub-indices: daytime comfort (CID), daily comfort (CIA), precipitation (R), sunshine hours (S), and wind speed (W). Historical climate data (1991-2021) were obtained from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and ERA5 reanalysis. Future projections (up to 2085) were derived from CHELSA 2.1 data using three climate models. Bias correction and regression imputation were applied for missing variables.
Results: Currently, most stations show “excellent” TCI ratings in summer (May-October), with Gilgit and Gupis maintaining favourable conditions for up to six months. Under optimistic scenarios (SSP126), TCI remains stable or slightly improves. Under pessimistic scenarios (SSP370, SSP585), summer TCI declines due to projected temperature rises, shifting peak comfort to spring and autumn. Astore shows the highest resilience, while Chillas and Bunji experience increased summer discomfort. TCI never falls below “acceptable” in any scenario.
Conclusion: Climate change will alter the seasonality of tourism comfort in Gilgit-Baltistan, but the region remains a viable tourist destination for the coming century. Sustainable tourism planning must incorporate climate adaptation strategies. The TCI proves effective for assessing climate-tourism dynamics and can be extended to other regions of Pakistan.
